The most popular Shenyin Wanguo futures crude oil

2022-08-02
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Shenyin Wanguo Futures: crude oil fell sharply, and PTA may not be able to stabilize.

last week, the trend of ta809, the main contract of PTA (8826, -22 oxide skin is too much, 2.00, -2.45%), rose first and then declined. The closing settlement price at the weekend fell 152 points compared with that at the beginning of the week. The trading volume includes improving the clutch reaction time and position amplification in the double clutch transmission system, and increasing the market attention. The price difference between ta809 and ta811 once widened to 750 points

registered warehouse receipts continued the recent decreasing trend. The number of warehouse receipts reported last Friday was 9963, and the effective forecast increased to 5373. In terms of position, the position of 809 contract remains at a high level, indicating that the market has great differences. In the hedging positions, the short positions of 809 contracts increased significantly, but the 24000 long positions remained stable

last week's crude oil futures fell by nearly $10, mainly troubled by sluggish demand and increased supply. The strong rebound of the US dollar index is also an important factor. The correlation coefficient between pta809 contract and crude oil futures decreased from 0.69 to 0.61, showing the unique trend of 809 contract. In terms of exchange rate, the US dollar index rebounded for four consecutive weeks. The reason may not be the sharp improvement of the US economy, but the comparative advantage shown by other developed economies that are caught in greater inflation risk and have less optimistic economy. The US dollar also continued to strengthen against the RMB. It may be the response to the strength of the international dollar and the adjustment of the continuous decline in the previous period. There is still room for the dollar to rise in the short term

in the spot market, PX prices follow the trend of international crude oil, rising first and then declining. However, due to the continuous strength of the US dollar against the RMB, the decline range is relatively limited with the change of living conditions after conversion into RMB. Meg's market fell mainly, mainly due to the obvious decline of ethylene price and the expected increase of inbound supply. As the downstream of PTA, the polyester chip market is in the doldrums, and the downstream manufacturers have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and light transactions. Polyester filament continues to decline. How should some manufacturers experiment with the price reduction and promotion? The impact resistance test is to measure the impact strength of materials under impact load. The inventory of some polyester manufacturers increased and the financial pressure increased

the sharp fall of international crude oil futures has a huge psychological impact on the whole market. Consumers in downstream industries have left the market to wait and see. However, the downturn in demand and the impact of transportation in some regions on production and sales during the Olympic Games have shown signs of rising inventory, and the capital of enterprises will face greater pressure. This week, the international crude oil may continue to decline, but the decline may be limited. Once the trend is established, some hidden commercial inventories will be released, and the producing countries may continue to increase production to achieve higher price selling. The fundamentals of PTA are not optimistic, and there is still room for decline. The 809 contract is approaching the delivery month, so it is suggested to avoid it. Intertemporal arbitrage needs to be carefully considered, and attention should be paid to risk management

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